Using the latest GIS and AI technology, SHC’s independent assessment of deforestation risk is based on the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL). The CDL is an annual geo-referenced, crop-specific land cover data layer produced using satellite imagery and extensive agricultural ground reference data. Annual review of the CDL data, which has a spatial resolution of 30 meters, allows the rate and immediate drivers of deforestation (in terms of the crops or other land uses that replace forests) to be readily identified.
The CDL has been updated annually since 2008 with new data released, usually in January each year, reflecting the crop and forest types occupying land during the previous growing season. The CDL draws on satellite data from the NASA/USGS Landsat Program and the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-2 mission. This allows trends to be analysed over time, while removing the need for additional time-consuming and costly work by SHC to compile satellite data and classify land uses. The SHC deforestation-risk assessment for each year is updated as soon as possible after CDL annual update becomes available.
To facilitate broad acceptance in the global market, the SHC assessment of deforestation risk is based, as far as possible, on internationally recognised definitions by deforestation by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (UN FAO). It also takes account of the definitions used in the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). As the focus is on the risk of commodity-driven deforestation of hardwood stands, the analysis quantifies the extent of conversion of deciduous and mixed deciduous/coniferous forest to agricultural land.
While the satellite data is of sufficiently high resolution to identify instances of deforestation at individual property level, in the first instance the system only makes aggregate data on deforestation risk available to users at the level of individual U.S. counties and larger geographical units. For each county, the extent of commodity-driven deforestation is provided as an annual average percentage of total forest area with a deciduous component.
The annual average percentages of forest area converted to another use can be broken down according to the classification of the newly converted land (e.g. specific agricultural crops, urban development etc). This allows insights into the drivers of deforestation and, specifically, to assess the risk of deforestation due to demand for different commodities in trade.
Drawing on the analysis and in consultation with stakeholders, SHC will determine a threshold level for deforestation. If deforestation falls below this level, the county level of risk will be considered negligible, requiring no further risk mitigation measures by U.S. hardwood operators.
SHC’s annual analysis of CDL data will be combined with an analysis of deforestation risks and drivers, prepared by the U.S. Forest Service, using the extensive sample-based inventory data collected across all the U.S., as part of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. The U.S. Forest Service is currently implementing a strategic plan for enhanced integration of remote sensing information into the FIA Program, with special emphasis on so-called “small area estimation” (SAE) techniques. This effort will engage a broad range of stakeholders to assist the U.S. Forest Service in meeting a Congressional directive to “implement procedures to improve the statistical precision of estimates at the sub-State level”. As in the SHC analysis of CDL data, the U.S. Forest Service is focused on improving the level of precision and access to data at county level, to support regulatory compliance and environmental claims in markets for forest products and agricultural commodities.
In line with the jurisdictional risk-based approach and under the terms of the SHC chain of custody standard, where a systematic risk of commodity-driven deforestation is identified in any county, hardwood mills procuring logs from that county will be required to develop and implement targeted plans to mitigate the risk of procuring from deforested areas in the future. These plans may be informed by the analysis of the drivers of deforestation in individual counties and developed in cooperation with appropriate forest agencies at state and county level.
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